No Chet… No Problem! The Thunder take care of business at home 118-104 versus the Mavericks to advance to the semifinals of the Emirates NBA Cup and easily cover their 4.5-point spread! Shai Gilgeous-Alexander dropped a massive 39 points, more than Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving combined. Luka struggled from the field, shooting 5-15 and posting only 16 points. The Mavericks defense simply could not stop OKC, who drained 20 three-pointers. The OKC defense was just as impressive, recording 14 steals and 5 blocks. This young OKC team is scary and the NBA needs to be on high alert when Chet Holgrem returns to the lineup.
The Milwaukee Bucks, while failing to cover the spread, eek out a victory against the injured Orlando Magic roster 114-109 to advance. Jalen Suggs was doing everything he could to give his team a fighting shot, scoring 32 points and being a pest on defense with 4 steals and a block. Despite his great performance, Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 37 point performance coupled with Lillard’s 28 points led the Bucks to victory. The game would have been a more comfortable victory for the Bucks if they were less careless on offense (16 turnovers) and Giannis shot better from the free throw line (7/12). Nonetheless, the Bucks and Thunder will advance to the semifinals of the Western conference with the chance to advance to the championship.
Tonight kicks off the two matchups in the Eastern conference of the NBA cup. The Knicks will host the Hawks as 7.5-point favorites and the Rockets will host the Warriors as 1.5-point favorites.
New York Knicks vs. Atlanta Hawks (+7.5) – Total: 237.5
The New York Knicks just played two days ago, beating the Toronto Raptors on the road 113-108. The Knicks have been playing some very impressive basketball lately as they are rated as the most efficient offense in the NBA over their last 10 games, leading them to a 7-3 record. However, the Hawks have also been surprising fans as they have posted a 6-4 record over their last 10, including victories against title contenders such as the Cleveland Cavaliers. These two teams faced off back in November in Atlanta where the Hawks came out victorious with a 116-100 victory, but now the Hawks will be playing in Madison Square Gardens. The Knicks at home have been dominate, scoring over 120 points per game and the Hawks are just 6-6 on the road. In terms of placing a bet on this game, my best bet is to take the Knicks team total over 122.5 points. While I think the Knicks could cover the spread, I would much rather exploit the Atlanta Hawks poor defense and fast pace. The Hawks have been playing at the fastest pace in the NBA and are allowing 120 points per game this season, the third most in NBA. The Hawks rank the worst in the NBA at defending the three-point shot, which the Knicks have been shooting at a high clip. For example, we just saw the Hawks allow the Denver Nuggets to score 141 points! At home, I love the Knicks to go out there and score at least 123 points against the Hawks pitiful defense.
New York Knicks vs. Atlanta Hawks Player Props (Odds May Have Changed)
Mikal Bridges Over 16.5 Points (-113, FanDuel)
- HE MAY BE THE BEST PLAYER AT HOME!
- Bridges is averaging 20.3 points per game at home this season and has scored at least 17 points in 10 of 11 home games this season.
- Bridges scores 32% of his points from the spot up where the hawks rank 20th and 16% of his points in transition where the Hawks also rank in the bottom half of the league.
- Last game vs. the Hawks, he had only 10 points, but that was in Atlanta. Last year in his 4 games vs. the Hawks, he scored 45, 32, 15, and 38 points! Bridges is the best corner three-point shooter in the league, and the Hawks rank 22nd in defending the corner three!
- The best part about betting overs on Mikal Bridges is you know he is going to get the minutes. He is a pawn of the Tom Thibodeau system as he has averaged 39 minutes per game over his last 20 games!
Jalen Brunson Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-110, FanDuel)
- Lillard has exceeded this line in 13/20 games this season, averaging 30.2 points+rebounds per game.
- The Magic rank 22nd defending the pick-and-roll where he scores nearly 40% of his points, 24th in isolation where he scores 12% of his points, and 12th against free throws where he scores 21% of his points.
- Lillard has recorded at least 4 rebounds in 17/20 games this season!
- The matchup for the Bucks big men is much tougher as the Magic allow the fourth fewest points in the restricted area, so I expect this to be DAME TIME!
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 15.5 Rebounds+Assists (-106, FanDuel)
- Hit 7 of his last 10 games, averaging 17.7 RA.
- Cleared this line (17 RA) in their only matchup vs. ATL this season.
- 20.8 potential rebounds + 4.6 potential assists over this hot streak.
- Hawks give up the 2nd most assists & 9th most rebounds in the NBA.
- High-stakes NBA Cup = heavy KAT minutes in a shootout scenario.
Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors (+1.5) – Total: 221.5
We just got to witness these two teams play in Golden State where the Warriors came out on top 99-93, even in the absence of Stephen Curry. How they find themselves facing off in the Emirates Cup where the warriors are road dogs. One crazy stat is that the Warriors are 14-0 against the Rockets
Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors Player Props
Jalen Green Under 20.5 Points (-115, Bet365)
- Green has gone under this line in 13 of his last 17 games, frequently scoring 18 or fewer in those contests.
- His recent big scoring games (41, 28, 31 points) were fueled by unsustainable efficiency, with 4-5 made threes in each.
- Golden State’s defense is a tough matchup for Green:
- 44% of his points come from Above-the-Break 3s, where GSW ranks 4th defensively.
- 38% of his scoring is in the Restricted Area, where GSW ranks 1st defensively.
- 31% comes from Pick-and-Roll plays, and GSW ranks 3rd here too.
- In Transition (19% of his scoring), GSW is 2nd defensively.
- Against the Warriors in his last 10 games, Green has averaged just 13.3 PPG in 33 MPG, staying under this line in all 8 recent matchups.
- His last four games vs. GSW: 16, 13, 7, and 14 points.
Draymond Green Under 5.5 Assists (+100, FanDuel)
- This play has hit in 50/50 games
- 50/50 Forwards to play 20+ mins against the Rockets are under this line and 48/50 had 4 or less assists.
- 0/50 hit 6+ Assists and Draymond already is Under vs the Rockets this year.
- He will see less usage in a tournament game as superstars usage increases and Draymond is under in 3 straight against them.
- 3 Assists in 35 minutes against the Warriors earlier this year and Houston has held every forward to 5 or less assists.
Stephen Curry Over 23.5 Points (-120, Bet365)
- Curry has gone over in 7 STRAIGHT Games vs the Rockets and scored 24, 29, and 32 points vs them since last season.
- On top of Curry averaging 26 PPG with two days rest since last year going over in 4/5 road games.
- This is an NBA Cup game Curry where he will see increased usage in a playoff type game.
- He will be guarded by Fred VanVleet Who Curry has DOMINATED going for at least 24+ Points vs FVV in 4/4 games the past three seasons.
Time for us to see who from the East will be advancing! Make sure to lock these player props in or comment your favorites that I may have missed. Also comment who you think is coming out on top tonight in the NBA’s action!
You can find me on X @SportsSciJacob for more sports analysis, picks, and predictions – https://x.com/SportsSciJacob