Spread: Eagles -6
Total: O/u 47.5
We’ll have the 14-3 Eagles hosting the 12-5 Commanders, kicking off at 3:00 pm est Sunday afternoon, to see who will represent the NFC in super bowl 59. It’s the Eagles 5th time hosting the championship game at home since Lincoln Financial opened in 2003, while this marks Washington’s first trip to the championship round in 33 years.
Philly is fresh off a 28-22 victory over the Rams in which weather played a HUGE factor, honestly both ways. Philly’s Jake Elliot missed two extra point attempts, but it was two lost fumbles in the 4th quarter that ultimately did the Rams in, as the Eagles were able to extend a 16-15 lead to 22-15 after a couple Elliot field goals, both coming directly after those two fumbles. A three and out by LA was then followed up with Saquan taking the first snap of the Eagles next drive 78 yds to the house to put them up by 13 with just over 4 minutes to play. That proved to be all she wrote on the Rams season.
The Commanders come into this after a convincing 45-31 win over the Lions, in Detroit, in a game that the Commanders took control of early and never looked back. They trailed 7-3 after the 1st quarter, but a 28-14 2nd quarter saw them take a 10pt lead into halftime. The Lions gained more yards and converted more 1st downs, but the Commanders controlled time of possession and smoked the lions in the turnover battle, 5-0. This Washington team has surprised us all, or at least most of us, I know personally I was extremely disappointed way back in week 3 when they lit my Bengals up for 38 pts, like it was the 4th of July. BUT, that doesn’t feel like the inexcusable loss that it did at the time anymore. They’re led by a rookie QB who’s playing like a 10-year vet who’s been there, done that. You just can’t seem to faze this Jayden Daniels kid! The poise he’s shown through the first two rounds of these playoffs has been incredible and he’s not only playing lights out but also lifting the play and inspiring everyone around him to do the same.
Washington Commanders rookie QB Jayden Daniels
The Commanders have now won 7 straight, obviously bringing a ton of momentum into this one and a belief that they have what it takes to win it all. This unit reminds me of a certain squad from 2021.. but let’s not get completely lost in the excitement from this Washington run and forget about Philadelphia. The Eagles are winners of 14 of their last 15 games and boast the best running back in the game in Barkley and we just saw last week the impact he can have in these playoffs. The most tried and true recipe for playoff success has always been and still remains…a dominant run game and a dominant defense. Philly definitely has both.
Now it must be noted, when these divisional rivals last met in week 16, the Commanders did pull out that come from behind victory, 36-33, which was capped off with another memorable and clutch performance from Daniels. But that win has to have an asterisk beside if we’re being real, Hurts was knocked out of this game, literally with a concussion, just a few minutes into action. Backup Kenny Pickett was, predictably, pretty underwhelming, throwing for just 143 yds with one td and one pick. Washington was then able to zero in on Saquan, who still ran for 150 yds with 2 TD’s. All the while, Daniels carved up what’s been, for what it’s worth, the best defense in the NFL this season, finishing with just over 250 passing yds and 5 TD’s. He did throw 2 picks in this one which contributed to that early deficit they were able to overcome.
So, what’s this all mean for this game here? I think we have to look at a few things here. First, who both teams have played recently and the caliber of each opponent. Looking at Philadelphia, they entered the playoffs 5-2 against opponents that ended up making the playoffs as well, while Washington was just 1-4 in such games, as evident by both team’s strength of victories, the Commanders rank 23rd in that regard while the Eagles sit at 12th. So far through these playoffs, I think many would argue that Washington has looked better than Philly in their two performances so far, but I think we have to look at the opponents as far as that’s concerned as well. Washington has road victories over Tampa and Detroit and let me preface by saying those were very impressive victories, but neither of those teams could cover a wall with paint to end the season. Washington needed all 60 minutes to overcome a late 4th quarter deficit to the Bucs and once again, I don’t want to take anything away from the Commanders and the game they played, but we all also know the amount of injuries Detroit faced on defense.
The Eagles handled Green Bay pretty easily in the wild card and while the Packers stumbled down the stretch, losing 3 straight to close out their season, it was a team that still ranked in the top 10 in both yds gained and allowed, and also points scored and points allowed. They then earned a win over a tough Rams team that had entered the divisional round, winners of 5 of their last 6, and that sole loss in that span was a week 18 game that carried no significance for LA and saw them rest many key players.
So overall, even though the Commanders knocked off the 1 seed, even though they’ve earned both victories on the road, I have to give the slight edge to Philly in terms of who’s seen the tougher opponents. The lions didn’t enter that divisional round as the same lions we saw before the injuries began piling up. Much like the Rams didn’t enter the playoffs as the same Rams we saw to begin the season.
As I’m looking down the roster’s of both squads, I just simply seem to find more areas where Philly is stronger, has more experience and more depth than Washington. While Daniels is playing lights out and that can’t be denied, no rookie QB has advanced to the super bowl. Not one single time! Maybe he’s the one to break through, but on the road in Philly against a QB in Hurts who was in the Super Bowl himself just 2 years ago, man, that’s a tough ask. But like I said, I’m not by any means denying he could be the one to do it.
Looking at the skill positions, it’s clear who has the stronger halfback, and while Washington’s receiving unit is nothing to balk at, Philly is still elite in that regard as well. Devonta Smith, Aj Brown and Dallas Goedert are still trouble for any defense. But obviously, we’ve seen Washington lean more on the pass, much more than Philly, and Philly lean on the run, much more than Washington.
The Eagles bring one of the leagues best offensive lines into this one, top 10 in both pass and block win rate, with a 72% run block win rate. They are healthy and have led the way for Barkley and co to average 227 rushing yards a game during this postseason so far. The Commanders on the other hand are going to be without starting RG Sam Cosmi who tore his ACL in that win over Detroit, ending his season short. And that’s a big blow to this Washington offensive line man, a line that also ranked in the top 10 in run and pass block win rates.
Philadelphia Eagles RB Saquan Barkley
And finally, defensively, I got to give the edge to Philly as well. While Washington sits at 20th against the pass and 26th against the rush in DVOA rankings, 23rd overall, the Eagles sit at 2nd both against the run and pass and 1st overall. Jalen Carter had a big-time performance against the Rams last week. He was doubled on 26 of 49 pass rush attempts and still managed 5 tackles, 2 for losses, with 2 sacks as well. Zack Baun is an all-pro linebacker, Darius Slay is a dawg at corner, Cj Gardner Johnson is a dawg at safety and rookie CB Quinyon Mitchell has been excellent opposite Slay but we’ll have to keep an eye on the injury report as he suffered a minor shoulder injury against the Rams.
All in all, I think the Commanders will be the sexy pick this week, 60% of the Bets and money put in so far is on the Commanders ml while 60% of the publics Bets placed are also on Washington with the points, but 55% of the money is on the Eagles covering. And that’s where I land with this one. Although I personaly would love to see Daniels and this underdawg Washington team pull it out and represent the NFC, I think Philly will just present too big of a challenge. While Hurts has struggled and looked pretty off at times just last week even, he’s a massive upgrade over Kenny Pickett who again, played the majority of that week 16 matchup between these two. With a healthy Hurts and at home, Philly handled Washington in week 10, winning 26-18. Give me Philly to cover in this one.
For the total, if I like Philly, I like the under as I expect them to win this one with that elite run game and defense. These two teams have definitely seen some offensive fireworks in the past with 4 of their last 5 matchups smacking that over but in week 10 with both teams at full strength we saw a slower paced, lower scoring game that landed under this mark. With so much on the line, these defenses will not only come to play, but Philly will look to control the clock and time of possession battle, keep the ball out of the rookie sensations hands and utilize the legs of not only Saquan but Jalen hurts as well.
Final Plays:
- SGP – Eagles -2.5 & total u/53.5 (+105 Bet MGM)
- Jalen Hurts o/30.5 rush yds (.5 unit, -110 Bet 365)
- Jalen Hurts u/24.5 pass attempts (.5 unit, -112 DraftKings)
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