All lines and totals subject to change.
The New York Yankees will look to extend their winning streak against the Boston Red Sox to ten games dating back to last season when two lefty’s take the mound on Monday night. Martin Perez (2-2) will take the mound for the Sox while Jordan Montgomery (2-1) will make his second start against Boston this year.
According to Draftkings.com the current over under is set at 10 while New York are favorited (-162) to Boston’s (+138). The run line is 1.5 with New York getting (+116) for -1.5 and the Sox getting (-137) with the points.
As far as scoring trends go for this matchup, New York is coming into the game scoring 40 runs over their last five game and the over is 7-1-3 in the Yankees’ last 11 games as a favorite. The over is also 7-2 in Boston’s last 9 Monday games. So far, the Yanks have covered the run line in the first three games of this series and have looked dominant despite the absence of key players.
That being said, the recent loss of DJ LeMahieu on top of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton lead me to believe the bats might continue to cool off like we saw in the 4-2 win on Sunday night.
Furthermore, in his last start against the Red Sox, Montgomery pitched five and two thirds innings giving up just one run and five hits. The dominant start included only one walk and several double plays as the Yanks went on to win 5-1. Despite his ERA climbing to 5.17 after a tough two outings against the Braves and Phillies, Montgomery knows that he’ll need to bring his A-game against a familiar opponent given the injuries on offense.
Perhaps the most impressive stat going into this game is the fact that the Yankees have covered 1.5 in each of their last 13 wins. Since the restart, the Bronx Bombers have won fourteen of their fifteen wins by two runs or more with the lone exception coming from the 3-2 win against the Washington Nationals on July 26th.
Boston will be coming into Monday night’s game looking to salvage a bit of pride on the weekend, but given the way their season has been going I wouldn’t count on it. Perez’ 9.97 ERA in 5 career starts against New York certainly doesn’t help either.
With the Tampa Bay Rays only two games behind New York in the AL East, don’t assume that Aaron Boone and his camp will be taking their foot off the gas after already taking 3 from Boston.
Given Montgomery’s past dominance against Boston, I’m expecting a low scoring game with most of the runs coming from New York. Lean on the under for this one, but do take the Yanks to cover the run line once again against a team they should beat handedly even without their top talent.
Best Bet Yankees -1.5 (+116)
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