Best Bet for Red Sox-Yankees 7-31-2020

All lines are subject to change

Last night, the Bronx Bombers won their 18th straight game against the Baltimore Orioles when Aaron Judge blasted a 3-1 fastball off of Cole Sulser after being down 5-6 in the top of the ninth. Judge’s late homer helped the Yankees cover the -1.5 run line which was listed at -167 on DraftKings, according to the action network.com. Now while there is arguably no better feeling than falling asleep after cashing on a ninth inning cover, that was yesterday, and today we’re looking ahead to a highly anticipated series against the Boston Red Sox.

The first game of this three game series will see Ryan Weber facing off against lefty Jordan Montgomery in what will be Montgomery’s first start for the Yankees since having Tommy John surgery. As of this morning, the money line is set with the Yankees as -210 favorites and the Sox as +175 dogs on DraftKings. The 1.5 run line currently sits at -110 for the Yanks and -108 for Boston. While its certainly always tempting to take New York to win or cover, there is far more value elsewhere for those looking to get in on the action for this game.

Despite being projected to finish near the bottom of the AL East, Boston has amassed an MLB best .276 collective batting average with a .783 OPS. They have also scored 34 runs through the six games since the restart which is tied for the sixth best in baseball. On the other hand, the Yankees are only hitting .223 as a team, but have won a majority of their games largely thanks to their nine home runs. With the over/under at 10.5 it seems likely that fans can expect the total to come closer to the over, especially given the starters that are slated to take the mound.

In his last outing against Baltimore, Weber gave up six runs off six hits in just three and two thirds innings. He also walked three batters and looked uncomfortable in a starting role, something he has only done 12 times in his career. In fact, Weber only has four quality starts and a lifetime ERA of 5.34, so he’s up for a tough task when he squares off against this star-studded Yankees squad.

However, Montgomery is only making his first start since 2018 and is facing a Red Sox lineup that has something to prove against their arch rival. I don’t see him coming out particularly strong in the first few innings, and considering Weber’s last outing, I’m looking at a lot of runs to be scored early in this contest.

DraftKings is listing the total runs for the first three innings at 3.5 with the over at -110 and the under at -113. For the first five innings, the total is at 6.5 with the over at +112 and the under at -137. Personally, I would take the over for either total, and while the 3.5 may be the safer pick, I’m making my best value play the over 6.5 through five innings at +112.

Even in an atmosphere without the fans fueling this matchup, this is still the biggest rivalry in baseball and heavy run totals are always anticipated. So if you’re looking to cash in on the plus side of the over/under bets, take the +112 and remember to please play responsibly.

(Photo: Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)