A wild NFL season continues this week as roughly 28 out of 32 teams are still “in the hunt” for the playoffs entering Week 13. Due to this, every game essentially has playoff implications this week, even though the slate isn’t all that exciting.
There are some lopsided matchups, which are never all that fun to bet on, but there is still some money to be made regardless. This NFL season has been wild for my betting record as well.
I started this season as cold as you can get, but rallied in November to get back above .500 lifetime. I went 32-16 betting NFL during the month of November, hitting my bets at an admittedly impressive 67% clip. Lifetime I am now 283-280-9 lifetime when betting NFL football.
So, let’s keep the good vibes rolling into December. With holiday season approaching rapidly, let’s win some money together.
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets (1:00 PM EST)
Spread: Eagles -5
O/U: 43.5
Moneyline: Eagles -250
Analysis: Let’s cut to the chase, I LOVE the Eagles here. Maybe it’s a trap, but it looks too delicious for me not to jump on it. Philly is coming off of an embarrassing loss to the division rival Giants, while the Jets squeaked away a victory over the lowly Texans.
The Jets are not a good football team. They’ve managed to pull out some wins, which they deserve credit for, but they are no where near a good team. That’s not to say the Eagles are a GREAT team, but they’ve found a rhythm of late and have a style that works for them.
Leaning heavy on the ground game, the Eagles have thrust themselves into the playoff conversation. Jalen Hurts is questionable to play tomorrow, which does hurt the offense, but I don’t think it makes a huge difference here. The Jets are bad, and I believe backup QB Gardner Minshew can handle himself.
The Jets are not good at stopping the run, and the Eagles have been one of the best running teams over the past month. Simple as that. Combine that with the fact that rookie Zach Wilson has looked terrible, and you have the recipe for an Eagles victory. I think Philly rolls here, it won’t be close. This also happens to be my lock of the week as well.
Pick: Eagles -5.0 🔐
Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (1:00 PM EST)
Spread: Bengals -3.0
O/U: 50.0
Moneyline: Bengals -165
Analysis: This is one of the best games Week 13 has to offer. Two teams on the rise with young star quarterbacks leading the way. The Bengals and Chargers should be playoff contenders in the AFC for years to come.
For now, they both have that “year too early” vibe. Both teams have taken steps forward to becoming contenders, but both still have room to grow and need more time. I’ll admit, this game is tough to predict.
The Chargers have been sliding of late, losing 3 of their last 5. Their run defense has been absolutely exposed. When matching up against Bengals’ RB Joe Mixon, that’s not exactly a good thing. However, I just can’t confidently put my money on this Bengals team.
I’ve been burned already this season by Cincy in a very similar spot. After their 41-17 win over the Ravens earlier in the year, I thought Cincy was for real. They followed that up with a huge upset loss to the Jets, and a blowout loss to the Browns.
They destroyed the Steelers last week, but that makes me feel like this is a big let down spot for the Bengals. Chargers need this win badly, especially with the Chiefs, Raiders, and Broncos all still firmly in the playoff mix. Expect the Chargers to figure it out and grab a win on the road.
Pick: Chargers ML +145
Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears (1:00 PM EST)
Spread: Cardinals -7.0
O/U: 42.5
Moneyline: Cardinals -320
Analysis: Listen, I’m not going to write much about this one. Sometimes a bet looks so easy that you instinctively try to fade yourself and overthink it. This is one you don’t have to overthink.
Bears are a bad football, HC Matt Nagy is on the verge of getting fired, and the cherry on top is all the injuries the Bears have accumulated. No Khalil Mack, no Akiem Hicks, maybe no Roquan Smith. The defense was this team’s saving grace, and they are running out of healthy bodies.
Cards off a bye, Kyler and Hopkins should be back. Cards will roll, Bears will get embarrassed here.
Pick: Cardinals -7.0
Washington Football Team at Las Vegas Raiders (4:05 PM EST)
Spread: Raiders -1.5
O/U: 48.0
Moneyline: Raiders -125
Analysis: Can we clap it up for Vegas? Any other team that has gone through what they have would have rolled over by now. Not this team. Gruden, Ruggs, Arnette, a multitude of scandals that should have derailed this team. Not to mention injuries to key guys like TE Darren Waller and RB Josh Jacobs.
It’s been an incredible story, but all stories must eventually end. The Raiders’ story ends this week. That win against Dallas on Thanksgiving was their last great chapter. They just don’t have enough to work with offensively.
Derek Carr is throwing to Hunter Renfrow and DeSean Jackson as his top two weapons. That’s not good. Washington is peaking at the righ time, QB Taylor Heineke has looked sharp in his role as a game manager.
Washington’s defense should give the Raiders trouble, and I’m not sure if Vegas will have an answer for RB Antonio Gibson Jr. I’m not proud to say it because I want to see the Raiders continue their run, but Washington will win this one.
Pick: Washington ML +105
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (4:25 PM EST)
Spread: Ravens -4.5
O/U: 44.5
Moneyline: Ravens -195
Analysis: The AFC North is a weird division man. You can never get a read on these teams. Just when you think you know them, you get a Bengals loss to the Jets, or a Ravens loss to the Dolphins. There is no consistency in this division.
Following that trend, I gotta lean towards Pittsburgh here. Mike Tomlin is the king of covering as a dog, and considering he failed to do so last week, he’s due to make up for it this week.
Is Big Ben hard to watch? Oh yeah he is. However, this defense is still good, and TJ Watt is back for this one. If anyone can slow down Lamar Jackson and this run heavy offense, it’s Mike Tomlin. At home, 4.5 point dog? It feels like a crime not to take the Steelers.
Give me Najee Harris anytime touchdown scorer too for good measure, considering the Steelers will need him to get involved in order to keep them in the game.
Pick: Steelers +4.5, Najee Harris Anytime TD Scorer -110
Photo by Tim Heitman
